FUND · 2020 · Multnomah County Measure 26-214
Preschool For All
Collections sharply outran ramp-up capacity, producing a multi-hundred-million accumulated balance even as enrollment lagged the implementation plan.
Voter intent. In 2020, Multnomah County voters approved a high-income tax with three jobs. Give every 3- and 4-year-old a tuition-free preschool spot. Pay teachers a living wage. Build provider capacity.
What follows is a year-by-year reading of how the cash position of this fund evolved, annotated with the audit findings and council actions that produced its current shape. Below that, a visual of what the balance could pay for at today’s published unit costs, the named mechanisms by which it currently can’t, and what would change if those mechanisms were removed.
WHERE IT COULD HELP NOW
What the balance is the size of
At the fund’s modeled balance, and at the unit costs that already appear in city, county, and bureau budgets, the dollars are equivalent in scale to any one of these.
$873.9M sitting today. At today's published unit costs, that is the same dollar amount as any one of these.
11,200 × Tuition-free preschool seats over 5 years (full ramp)
$14K per unit · County provider rate, modeled blended
1,400 × Workforce wage uplift to a $28/hr floor for early educators
$38K per unit · $28/hr × 1,950 hr × 4 yr — wage delta only
380 × New provider classrooms
$145K per unit · County classroom buildout average
Unit counts are rounded against published references. Real procurement and ramp time would shape the exact numbers. The point is the order of magnitude.
MECHANISMS
What’s in the way of spending it as voted
Each item below is a named mechanism in code, charter, or council practice. The defense is the line routinely offered for it. The note beside it is the structural reading of why that line is not the whole story.
Mechanism 1
No published binding ramp schedule
The county controls the enrollment ramp internally. There is no public, binding multi-year schedule that providers and parents can plan against.
- Where the discretion sits
- Multnomah County Preschool & Early Learning Division
The defense
“Provider capacity must build before enrollment can scale; rushing risks quality.”
Structural reading
Other counties have ramped at twice this pace using the same workforce dollars. The slow ramp is a choice, not a constraint.
Mechanism 2
Surplus is framed as "future capacity reserve" with no spend trigger
Year-end balances are reported as reserves rather than as undeployed capacity. There is no rule forcing a spend-down once the reserve passes a multiple of annual operating cost.
- Where the discretion sits
- County Board of Commissioners
The defense
“Reserves protect against tax-rate volatility.”
Structural reading
A reserve at one year of operations would be defensible. The current modeled reserve is over three.
If those mechanisms were removed
Publish a binding 5-year ramp with quarterly enrollment reports, and 11,200 children get seats while 1,400 educators move to the wage floor.
How the balance got here
What follows is a year-by-year reading of how the cash position of this fund evolved. Scroll the right column to advance the chart; each step is an audit finding, council resolution, or bureau memo that shaped the shape.
Modeled cash position, with audit annotations
MODELEDAnnotations are auditor findings, council resolutions, and bureau memos. The active step is shown with a vertical rule.
Data table for Modeled cash position, with audit annotations
| Year | Balance | Obligated | Inflow | Spent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 178522544 | 69623792 | 185960983 | 7438439 |
| 2022 | 371292661 | 144804138 | 219056952 | 26286834 |
| 2023 | 544176223 | 212228727 | 250555886 | 77672325 |
| 2024 | 697328442 | 271958092 | 294523499 | 141371279 |
| 2025 | 873910171 | 340824967 | 339580248 | 162998519 |
2022
Discovery: enrollment shortfall
First full implementation year enrolls a small fraction of eligible 3- and 4-year-olds against the ramp plan.
2023
Audit: balance accumulation
Auditor flags accelerating reserve growth and recommends a clearer disbursement strategy tied to provider capacity build-up.
2024
Board: rate adjustment debate
County Board considers reducing the tax rate or pausing collections; vote deferred citing future capacity needs.
Promise versus delivery
The chart on the right pairs each plan cycle’s stated dollar promise with the dollar amount that was eventually delivered against it. The gap between the two — labelled in orange — is what flows into the next cycle’s carryover, and what the audit narrative on the previous chart is, in part, accumulating into.
Promised vs. delivered, by fiscal cycle
MODELEDPromised dollars are those committed in the bureau's published plan; delivered dollars are what shipped against the plan. Modeled.
Data table for Promised vs. delivered, by fiscal cycle
| Cycle | Promised | Delivered | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2022 | 90000000 | 11000000 | 79000000 |
| FY 2023 | 130000000 | 41000000 | 89000000 |
| FY 2024 | 175000000 | 79000000 | 96000000 |
| FY 2025 | 215000000 | 118000000 | 97000000 |
Reserve growth
When delivery lags collection, the residual accumulates as an unobligated reserve. This is not a savings account in the household sense: it is a balance that public-finance officers and council staff have, by ordinance, the discretion to redirect.
Modeled unobligated reserve
MODELEDData table for Modeled unobligated reserve
Each row shows the dollars left sitting unspent in this fund at the end of that year.
| Year | Unspent reserve (USD) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 108898752 |
| 2022 | 226488523 |
| 2023 | 331947496 |
| 2024 | 425370350 |
| 2025 | 533085204 |
Drift from voter intent
The chart on the right is a drift index. A value of 100 percent means every dollar in the fund is being used in a way that maps cleanly to the original ballot text. A value below 100 percent means some share has been ordinance-redirected, swept into a sibling program, or otherwise reclassified.
Drift index — voter intent vs. modeled actual disposition
MODELEDData table for Drift index — voter intent vs. modeled actual disposition
Modeled share of dollars still aimed at the original ballot purpose, with each council vote that broadens the eligible uses pulling the score down.
| Year | On voter intent (%) | Drift (%) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2022 | 88 | 12 | |
| 2023 | 79 | 21 | Enrollment shortfall |
| 2024 | 74 | 26 | |
| 2025 | 71 | 29 |
WEEKLY MEMO · PRESCHOOL FOR ALL
No memo for this fund yet this week
The weekly run hasn’t produced a published memo for this fund yet.